文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于面板向量自回归模型的新质生产力、产业结构优化与碳排放效率动态关系研究

英文题名：Research on the dynamic relationship among new quality productivity,industrial structure optimization,and carbon emission efficiency based on PVAR model

作者：张丽峰[1]

第一作者：张丽峰

机构：[1]北京联合大学旅游学院,北京100101

第一机构：北京联合大学旅游学院

年份：2026

卷号：48

期号：4

起止页码：131-138

中文期刊名：环境污染与防治

外文期刊名：Environmental Pollution & Control

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(No.23BGL172)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：新质生产力;产业结构优化;碳排放效率;PVAR模型

外文关键词：new quality productivity;industrial structure optimization;carbon emission efficiency;PVAR model

摘要：基于2013—2022年中国省级新质生产力、产业结构优化和碳排放效率数据,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型实证分析了三者之间的动态关系。结果显示:三者之间存在显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,并且均受到自身及相互间的滞后因素影响。脉冲响应分析表明,各变量对自身受到冲击后的响应均为正向,但呈下降趋势。不同变量的冲击效应呈现出不同的复杂调节过程。方差分解结果表明,三者的自身贡献率逐年降低,但交叉贡献率均呈上升趋势。不过,新质生产力的巨大潜能尚未充分转化为推动产业结构优化的动力,存在“渗透瓶颈”,产业结构优化对碳排放效率的绿色效应也未得到充分发挥。
Based on provincial panel data(new quality productivity,industrial structure optimization,and carbon emission efficiency)in China from 2013 to 2022,the PVAR model was employed to empirically analyze the dynamic relationship.Results indicated that significant bidirectional Granger causality relationships were identified among the three variables,and all the variables were influenced by their own and others'lagged factors.Impulse response analysis revealed that each variable exhibited a positive response to its own shock,although this response diminished gradually.The shock effects among the variables showed different and complicated adjustments.Variance decomposition result demonstrated that the self-contribution rates gradually diminished,while the cross-contribution rates exhibited an upward trend.However,the vast potential of new quality productivity was not fully translated into driving industrial structure optimization,indicating the presence of a"penetration bottleneck".Furthermore,the green effect of industrial structure optimization on carbon emission efficiency was not fully achieved,too.