文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：人民币实际汇率波动、汇率错位对中国制造业出口的影响

英文题名：The Impact of RMB Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Exchange Rate Misalignment on China’s Manufacturing Export

作者：李腊生[1];高书丽[1,2]

第一作者：李腊生

机构：[1]天津财经大学中国经济统计研究中心;[2]北京联合大学商务学院

第一机构：天津财经大学中国经济统计研究中心,天津300222

年份：2012

期号：11

起止页码：90-100

中文期刊名：当代财经

外文期刊名：Contemporary Finance & Economics

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2011】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2012_2013】；

语种：中文

中文关键词：汇率波动;汇率错位;制造业出口;自回归分布滞后

外文关键词：exchange rate volatility; exchange rate misalignment; manufacturing export; ARDL

摘要：依据1995-2011年的季度数据,通过GARCH模型对人民币实际汇率波动进行了测算,并基于行为均衡汇率理论对人民币实际汇率错位程度进行了估计,在此基础上研究了人民币实际汇率波动以及错位对中国制造业各分类产品出口贸易的影响。研究结果表明,无论从长、短期来看,人民币实际汇率波动及汇率错位对不同分类产品的影响均表现出负向影响,但影响效果因产品特性的不同而有较大差异;各分类产品出口短期内均具有自我修正的动态机制。货币当局在关注人民币实际汇率水平值的同时,应进一步减少汇率波动及错位对制造业等实体经济的负面影响。
Based on the quarterly data from 1995 to 2011, this paper firstly estimates RMB real exchange rate volatility by employing the GARCH model. Then based on the behavior equilibrium ex- change rate theory, it measures the degree of RMB real exchange rate misalignment. On the basis of that, it studies the impact of volatility and misalignment of RMB real exchange rate on the manufac- turing export. The results show that whether in the long-term or short-term, the volatility and mis- alignment of RMB real exchange rate have both produced negative influence on the export commodi- ties of different kinds, but the effect varies depending on the different features of the commodities. The different commodities for export all have a dynamic mechanism of self-correction in the short term. The monetary authorities should further reduce the negative impact of the volatility and mis- alignment of exchange rate on the manufacturing industry and other real economy while paying atten- tion to the value level of RMB real exchange rate.