文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Six-decade temporal change and seasonal decomposition of climate variables in Lake Dianchi watershed (China): stable trend or abrupt shift?

作者：Zhou, Jing[1,2];Liang, Zhongyao[2];Liu, Yong[2];Guo, Huaicheng[2];He, Dan[3];Zhao, Lei[4]

第一作者：Zhou, Jing

通讯作者：Liu, Y[1]

机构：[1]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;[2]Peking Univ, Key Lab Water & Sediment Sci MOE, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China;[3]Beijing Union Univ, Coll Appl Arts & Sci, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China;[4]Yunnan Key Lab Pollut Proc & Management Plateau L, Kunming 650034, Peoples R China

第一机构：Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

通讯机构：[1]corresponding author), Peking Univ, Key Lab Water & Sediment Sci MOE, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China.

年份：2015

卷号：119

期号：1-2

起止页码：181-191

外文期刊名：THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-84893735282);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000347409100015)】；

基金：This paper was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 41222002) and "China National Water Pollution Control Program" (2013ZX07102-006). The authors also greatly appreciate Kunming Meteorological Bureau (KMMB) for providing data for this study.

语种：英文

摘要：Meteorological trend analysis is a useful tool for understanding climate change and can provide useful information on the possibility of future change. Lake Dianchi is the sixth largest freshwater body in China with serious eutrophication. Algal blooms outbreak was proven to be closely associated with some climatic factors in Lake Dianchi. It is therefore essential to explore the trends of climatic time series to understand the mechanism of climate change on lake eutrophication. We proposed an integrated method of Mann-Kendall (MK) test, seasonal-trend decomposition using locally weighted regression (LOESS) (STL), and regime shift index (RSI) to decompose the trend analysis and identify the stable and abrupt changes of some climate variables from 1951 to 2009. The variables include mean air temperature (Tm), maximum air temperatures (Tmax), minimum air temperatures (Tmin), precipitation (Prec), average relative humidity (Hum), and average wind speed (Wind). The results showed that (a) annual Tm, Tmax, and Tmin have a significant increasing trend with the increasing rates of 0.26, 0.15and 0.43 A degrees C per decade, respectively; (b) annual precipitation has an insignificant decreasing trend with the decreasing rate of 3.17 mm per decade; (c) annual Hum has a significant decreasing trend in all seasons; and (d) there are two turning points for temperature rise around 1980 and 1995 and two abrupt change periods for precipitation with the extreme points appearing in 1963 and 1976. Temperature rise and precipitation decline in summer and autumn as well as wind speed decrease after the 1990s may be an important reason for algal blooms outbreak in Lake Dianchi. This study was expected to provide foundation and reference for regional water resource management.