文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Forecasting tourism demand with composite search index

作者：Li, Xin[1];Pan, Bing[2,3];Law, Rob[4];Huang, Xiankai[5]

第一作者：李新

通讯作者：Li, X[1]

机构：[1]Beijing Union Univ, Inst Tourism, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;[2]Penn State Univ, Coll Hlth & Human Dev, Dept Recreat Pk & Tourism, University Pk, PA 16802 USA;[3]Shaanxi Normal Univ, Sch Tourism & Environm Sci, Xian, Peoples R China;[4]Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Sch Hotel & Tourism Management, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China;[5]Beijing Open Univ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

第一机构：北京联合大学旅游学院

通讯机构：[1]corresponding author), Beijing Union Univ, Inst Tourism, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China.|[1141732]北京联合大学旅游学院;[11417]北京联合大学;

年份：2017

卷号：59

起止页码：57-66

外文期刊名：TOURISM MANAGEMENT

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-84979675845);WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000390739400005)】；

基金：This research was partially supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC No. 71373023 and NSFC No. 41428101) and "New Start" Academic Research Projects of Beijing Union University (Zk10201609).

语种：英文

外文关键词：Tourism demand forecast; Big data analytics; Search query data; Generalized dynamic factor model; Composite search index

摘要：Researchers have adopted online data such as search engine query volumes to forecast tourism demand for a destination, including tourist numbers and hotel occupancy. However, the massive yet highly correlated query data pose challenges when researchers attempt to include them in the forecasting model. We propose a framework and procedure for creating a composite search index adopted in a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM). This research empirically tests the framework in predicting tourist volumes to Beijing. Findings suggest that the proposed method improves the forecast accuracy better than two benchmark models: a traditional time series model and a model with an index created by principal component analysis. The method demonstrates the validity of the combination of composite search index and a GDFM. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.