文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Livelihood Resilience of Rural Residents under Natural Disasters in China

作者：Liu, Hang[1];Pan, Wenli[1];Su, Fei[1];Huang, Jianyi[2];Luo, Jiaqi[1];Tong, Lei[1];Fang, Xi[1];Fu, Jiayi[1]

第一作者：Liu, Hang

通讯作者：Su, F[1];Huang, JY[2]

机构：[1]Zhejiang Gongshang Univ, Sch Tourism & Urban Rural Planning, Hangzhou 310018, Peoples R China;[2]Beijing Union Univ, Coll Appl Arts & Sci, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China

第一机构：Zhejiang Gongshang Univ, Sch Tourism & Urban Rural Planning, Hangzhou 310018, Peoples R China

通讯机构：[1]corresponding author), Zhejiang Gongshang Univ, Sch Tourism & Urban Rural Planning, Hangzhou 310018, Peoples R China;[2]corresponding author), Beijing Union Univ, Coll Appl Arts & Sci, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China.|[114172]北京联合大学应用文理学院;[11417]北京联合大学;

年份：2022

卷号：14

期号：14

外文期刊名：SUSTAINABILITY

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85136385181);WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000833776400001)，SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000833776400001)】；

基金：This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, grant number 42171206, 42071159, 51908498, 41901202.

语种：英文

外文关键词：livelihood resilience; ARIMA model; structural dynamics; ridge regression analysis; rural residents

摘要：The impact of natural disasters on rural areas has recently increased, the question of how to effectively improve the livelihood resilience of rural residents has therefore become an essential issue. In this context, a livelihood resilience evaluation index system for rural residents was constructed in four dimensions: livelihood quality, livelihood promotion, livelihood provision, and disaster stress. A structural dynamics model was used to analyze the changing characteristics of the livelihood resilience of rural residents in China between the years 1980 and 2020, and a livelihood resilience trend from 2021 to 2030 was predicted based on the ARIMA model. The main factors influencing livelihood resilience were explored using ridge regression analysis. The results show that: (1) livelihood resilience of rural residents in China fluctuated significantly between 1980 and 2020, tending generally to increase; (2) livelihood resilience is positively correlated with livelihood quality, livelihood promotion, and livelihood provision, while it is negatively correlated with disaster stress; (3) livelihood quality, livelihood promotion, and livelihood supply will still increase between the years 2021 and 2030, while the increase of livelihood resilience will tend to slow down; and (4) six variables have a significant positive impact on livelihood resilience, and provide a basis for the subsequent enhancement of livelihood resilience.