文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：经济新常态下企业劳动关系风险预测研究——基于245家企业调查数据

英文题名：The Study on the Prediction of Enterprise Labor Relations under the Economic New Normal Background——Based on the Survey Data of 245 Enterprises

作者：何勤[1];孟泉[2];李倩[1]

第一作者：何勤

机构：[1]北京联合大学管理学院;[2]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院

第一机构：北京联合大学管理学院

年份：2015

卷号：0

期号：11

起止页码：94-102

中文期刊名：中国人力资源开发

外文期刊名：Human Resources Development of China

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2014】；

基金：国家社科基金重大项目"集体劳动争议预防与处理机制的系统化构建研究"(项目号:14ZDA066);北京市教育委员会社科计划面上项目"京津冀协同发展背景下统一开放的人力资源市场体系构建研究"(项目号:SM201511417010);北京市属高等学校高层次人才引进与培养计划项目(项目号:CIT&TCD201304087)资助~~

语种：中文

中文关键词：经济新常态;劳动关系;风险;预测模型

外文关键词：Economic New Normal; Labor Relations ; Risk; Prediction

摘要：经济新常态背景下,企业劳动关系环境发生重大变化,可能引发大量的劳资冲突事件,急需开发科学的工具技术来预测经济新常态下企业劳动关系的发展趋势,以便采取预防措施来主动适应经济新常态。在对经济新常态下企业劳动关系影响因素分析的基础上,采用因子分析法确定了员工信心指数、民主参与、企业经营绩效、员工权益实现、劳动环境、员工发展、收入公平性以及超时工作情况8个因变量,采用Logistic回归的计量分析方法建立了企业劳动关系预测模型。并以245家企业劳动关系数据作为样本数据进行了模型的参数估计、检验及修正,最终建立了企业劳动关系风险预测模型。经检验,该模型有较好的显著性、拟合度和分辨率,可以作为预测企业劳动关系风险的有效模型。运用该模型对245家企业劳动关系进行了预测,预测结果显示:微型、私营以及处于成长期的企业的劳动关系状况较为脆弱,风险较大。在构建科学的劳动关系预测模型基础上,提出新常态下应以体系化的思想,对经济新常态下企业可能出现的劳动关系风险进行系统化的治理,同时突出了新常态下的应对方略。
The background of new economic environment under normal conditions, labor relations in enterprises have changed a lot, may cause the labor conflict incident in great quantities, are in urgent need of development tool of science technology to predict the development trend of enterprise labor relations under the new normal economy, so as to take preventive measures to take the initiative to adapt to the new economic normality. By using the factor analysis method was used to determine the employee confidence index, democratic participation, business performance, realization of the fights and interests of employees, work environment, employee development, revenue fairness and work overtime 8 dependent variables, the econometric analysis using Logistic regression method to establish the forecasting model of enterprise labor relations. And with 245 enterprises labor relation data as sample data for the estimation and correction test, the parameters of the model, the eventual establishment of labor relations in enterprises risk prediction model. Aider inspection, the model has good fitting degree significantly, and resolution, can be used to predict the effective model of enterprise labor relation risk. Prediction in the construction of scientific labor relations based on the model, proposed the implementation of the construction of labor relations in enterprises cooperative three aspects to establish and preventive mechanism of labor conflict event field should work under normal conditions in the new enterprise establishment, way of labor relation management of enterprise transformation and enterprise collective bargaining system, promote the sustainable development of enterprises.