文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：土地利用需求冲击、土地出让与产业结构——基于多部门DSGE模型的研究

英文题名：Impact of Land Use Demand,Land Transfer,and Industrial Structure——Based on Multi-Sectoral DSGE Model

作者：张璋[1];丁言豪[2]

第一作者：张璋

机构：[1]北京联合大学生物化学工程学院,北京100023;[2]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

第一机构：北京联合大学生物化学工程学院

年份：2025

期号：2

起止页码：163-171

中文期刊名：经济体制改革

外文期刊名：Reform of Economic System

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于产业结构优化的土地供给结构化设计与动态管理研究”(18BJL053)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：土地出让;产业结构;住房需求冲击;工业用地;商业用地

外文关键词：land transfer;industrial structure;housing demand shock;industrial land;commercial land

摘要：构建包含工业、商业及房地产企业的多部门动态随机一般均衡模型,研究中国工业、商业及住宅用地出让对产业结构的影响及作用机制。研究表明,工业用地需求冲击和住房需求冲击是引发经济波动的重要因素。工业用地需求正向冲击,提高工业企业产值,但挤出住宅用地出让面积,降低房地产业产值。工业用地需求冲击对商业产值存在双重效应:一方面,工业用地出让面积挤出商业用地出让面积,降低商业产值;另一方面,工业产值增加提高商业品需求,促进商业投资和融资,提高商业产值。因此,工业用地需求导致商业产值“先降后增”。住房需求正向冲击,提高住宅用地出让面积,增加房地产业产出,但挤出工业用地和商业用地出让面积,导致工业和商业产出降低,产业结构扭曲,经济总产出降低。为避免需求冲击经土地出让扭曲产业结构,应进行逆周期土地管理,合理调控不同类型土地出让面积,调整产业结构,引导经济“脱虚向实”。
This article constructs a multi-sectoral dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model(DSGE Model)that includes industrial enterprises,commercial enterprises,and real estate enterprises,to study the impact and mechanism of industrial land,commercial land,and residential land transfer on industrial structure in China.Research has shown that the impact of industrial land demand and housing demand is an important factor in triggering economic fluctuations.Firstly,the demand for industrial land is positively impacting,increasing the output value of industrial enterprises,but squeezing out residential land and reducing the output value of the real estate industry.Secondly,the impact of industrial land demand has a dual effect on commercial output:on the one hand,the area of industrial land sold out squeezes out commercial land,reducing commercial output;On the other hand,the increase in industrial output increases the demand for commercial goods,promotes commercial investment and financing,and enhances commercial output.Therefore,the demand for industrial land leads to a“first decrease and then increase”in commercial output value.Thirdly,there is a positive impact on housing demand,increasing the area of residential land sold and increasing the output of the real estate industry.However,squeezing out the area of industrial and commercial land leads to a decrease in industrial and commercial output,distortion of industrial structure,and a decrease in total economic output.To avoid demand shock and distortion of industrial structure through land transfer,this article suggests that government departments should carry out countercyclical land management,reasonably regulate the area of different types of land transfer,adjust industrial structure,and guide the economy to move from virtual to real.