文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：COVID-19疫情早期中国确诊时间的时空特征及动态过程分析

英文题名：Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Dynamic Process Analysis of Epidemic Diagnosis Time of COVID-19 at Early Stage in Chinese Mainland

作者：张新[1];林晖[2];朱长明[3];王劲峰[4];李满春[5];徐成东[4];胡茂桂[4];孟斌[6];曹春香[1]

第一作者：张新

机构：[1]中国科学院空天信息创新研究院遥感科学国家重点实验室,北京100101;[2]中国电子科技集团公司电子科学研究院,北京100041;[3]江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院,江苏徐州221116;[4]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101;[5]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210023;[6]北京联合大学应用文理学院,北京100191

第一机构：中国科学院空天信息创新研究院遥感科学国家重点实验室,北京100101

年份：2020

卷号：45

期号：6

起止页码：791-797

中文期刊名：武汉大学学报：信息科学版

外文期刊名：Wuhan Daxue Xuebao (Xinxi Kexue Ban)/Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University

收录：CSTPCD;;EI(收录号：20202908938199);Scopus;北大核心:【北大核心2017】；CSCD:【CSCD2019_2020】；

基金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFB0504201);国家自然科学基金(61473286)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：新型冠状病毒肺炎;确诊时间;时空分析;动态过程

外文关键词：coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19);epidemic diagnosis time;spatiotemporal analysis;dynamic process

摘要：流行病确诊时间能够反映一个国家和地方卫生部门的综合应急水平及理疗能力。基于中国疾病预防控制中心提供的中国大陆地区早期7万余个新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)确诊和疑似病例诊疗时间记录数据,采用分区统计、空间制图、趋势模拟和显著性检验等分析手段,研究了COVID-19疫情早期在诊断时间的时空分布、空间分异和动态过程。研究结果表明:(1)COVID-19疫情早期从发病到确诊的平均确诊时间为7.35 d,其中湖北省为7.99 d,其他省份平均为5.68 d;从疑似到确诊的平均确诊时间为3.86 d,湖北省为4.08 d,其他省份为2.91 d。虽然湖北省的确诊时间要略微高于中国大陆地区平均水平,但是这种空间分异现象差异不是特别明显,各地平均确诊时间离散度仅为0.58 d。(2)COVID-19疫情早期确诊时间呈显著下降趋势(Slope=-0.78,P<0.01,双尾),确诊时间由疫情暴发早期的2个月内快速下降至1 d左右,大大提高了COVID-19诊疗效率。(3)对出院病例的治愈时间与确诊时间进行Pearson相关分析,结果表明,治愈时间和确诊时间显著相关(P<0.01,双尾),这从侧面反映缩短确诊时间、早治早疗和及时诊疗可以有效提高治愈率。
Epidemic diagnosis time can scientifically evaluate and comprehensively reflect the emergency level and physical therapy capacity of a national or local health department.Based on the diagnosis and treatment time records of more than 70000 diagnosed or suspected cases of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)provided by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC),this paper uses regional statistics,spatial mapping,trend simulation,and significance testing to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution,spatial differentiation and dynamic process of the early diagnosis time of COVID-19 in Chinese mainland.Results show that:(1)The average epidemic diagnosis time for COVID-19 outbreak from early onset to diagnosis is 7.35 days.Among them,Hubei Province is 7.99 days,and the average diagnosis time in other provinces is 5.68 days.The average time from suspect to diagnosis is 3.86 days,4.08 days in Hubei,and 2.91 days in other provinces.Although the epidemic diagnosis time in Hubei Province is slightly higher than the average,the difference in spatial differentiation is not particularly noticeable.The average dispersion of diagnosis time is only 0.58 days.(2)The dynamic process of COVID-19 diagnosis time shows a significant decrease trend(Slope=-0.78,P<0.01,two-tailed),and the diagnosis time quickly drops to 1 day within 2 months of the early outbreak.This greatly improves the efficacy of epidemiological diagnosis.(3)Pearson correlation analysis between epidemic diagnosis time and healing period shows significantly related(P<0.01,two-tailed).Early diagnosis and early treatment can reduce the time for patients to heal.All patients are treated in time to effectively improve the cure rate.The above research results indicate that:Chinese government has steadily promoted the overall prevention and control of the epidemic,and achieved remarkable results.Efficient diagnosis reduces the natural exposure time of the virus,reduces the time to cure and the probability of potential cross-infection.It has laid a solid foundation for the prevention and control of the epidemic in China in a short period of time and the nationwide resumption of work and production.