文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：金融开放真的导致宏观经济波动吗——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

英文题名：Does Financial Opening Really Lead to Macroeconomic Volatility: An Empirical Study Based on Cross-country Panel Data

作者：张莹[1];修媛媛[2];王思莹[3]

第一作者：张莹

机构：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所、国家金融与发展实验室;[2]北京联合大学商务学院;[3]加拿大英属哥伦比亚大学

第一机构：中国社会科学院经济研究所、国家金融与发展实验室

年份：2019

卷号：0

期号：6

起止页码：16-29

中文期刊名：宏观经济研究

外文期刊名：Macroeconomics

收录：国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2017】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2019_2020】；

基金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“开放资本账户、实际汇率重调与经济增长:基于动态CGE模型的研究”(批准号:71603275);北京市商务局北京市服务贸易便利化课题的资助

语种：中文

中文关键词：金融开放;经济波动;生产率;资本波动

外文关键词：Financial openness;Economic volatility;Productivity;Capital volatility

摘要：金融开放对于一国宏观经济而言是一把双刃剑,它在促进经济增长的同时也可能会带来经济波动的负向冲击。本文利用74个国家和地区在1960-2000年间的跨国面板数据,考察了金融开放对宏观经济波动的影响及可能的影响机制。结果显示,一国金融开放显著降低了经济增长的波动性。进一步的机制分析表明,对发达国家而言,金融开放通过降低生产率波动和人均资本波动两个渠道,显著抑制了经济增长的波动;而对于发展中国家,金融开放则显著增大了人均资本的波动,而对生产率和人均产出波动影响甚微。这一结果在不同的模型设置和处理内生性问题后依然稳健。因此,如何在扩大金融开放促进经济增长的同时,积极发挥金融开放抑制经济波动作用机制是广大发展中国家在扩大金融开放过程中需要重点研究的课题。
Financial openness is a double-edged sword for a country’s macro-economy. It may also bring about a negative impact of economic volatility while promoting economic growth. This paper uses the cross-country panel data of 74 countries and regions between 1960 and 2000 to examine the impact of financial openness on macroeconomic volatility and possible impact mechanisms.The results show that the financial opening of a country has significantly reduced the volatility of economic growth.Further institutional analysis shows that for developed countries, financial openness significantly reduces the volatility of economic growth by reducing productivity volatility and per capita capital volatility;for developing countries, financial openness has significantly increased the per capita capital volatility, but has little effect on productivity and per capita output volatility.This result is still robust after different model settings and handling endogeneity issues.Therefore, how to expand financial openness and promote economic growth while actively exerting the financial opening mechanism to curb economic volatility is a topic that need to be studied in the process of expanding the financial opening of developing countries.