文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：The Crude Oil International Trade Competition Networks: Evolution Trends and Estimating Potential Competition Links

作者：Zhou, Xuanru[1];Zhang, Hua[1];Zheng, Shuxian[2];Xing, Wanli[3];Zhao, Pei[4];Li, Haiying[5]

第一作者：Zhou, Xuanru

通讯作者：Zhang, H[1];Xing, WL[2]

机构：[1]China Univ Geosci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China;[2]China Univ Min & Technol, Sch Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China;[3]China Geol Survey, Dev Res Ctr, Beijing 100037, Peoples R China;[4]Beijing Union Univ, Teachers Coll, 5 Waiguan Obl St, Beijing 100011, Peoples R China;[5]Ludong Univ, Sch Liberal Arts, 186 Middle Hongqi Rd, Yantai 264000, Peoples R China

第一机构：China Univ Geosci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

通讯机构：[1]corresponding author), China Univ Geosci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China;[2]corresponding author), China Geol Survey, Dev Res Ctr, Beijing 100037, Peoples R China.

年份：2022

卷号：15

期号：7

外文期刊名：ENERGIES

收录：;EI(收录号：20221411885656);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85127385935);WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000780546600001)，SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000780546600001)】；

基金：This work was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71991481 and No.71991480) and the Basic Science Center Project for National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 72088101, the Theory and Application of Resource and Environment Management in the Digital Economy Era).

语种：英文

外文关键词：competitive relation; link prediction; crude oil trade; complex network

摘要：In the context of the economic situation, international relations, and the consequences of COVID-19, the future competition pattern of crude oil trade is uncertain. In this paper, the crude oil international import competition and export competition networks are based on a complex network model. The link prediction method is used to construct a crude oil competition relationship prediction model. We summarize the evolving characteristics of the competitive landscape of the global crude oil trade from 2000 to 2019 and explore the reasons for the changes. Finally, we forecast the future potential crude oil import and export competition. The results indicate the following. (1) The crude oil import competition center is transferred from Europe and America to the Asia-Pacific region and it may continue to shift to developing regions. (2) At present, the competition among traditional crude oil exporters is the core of crude oil export competition, such as OPEC, Canada, and Russia. The United States has become the world's largest crude oil exporter, which means that the core of crude oil export competition has begun to shift to emerging countries. The competition intensity of emerging crude oil exporters is gradually increasing. There is likely to be fierce export competition between traditional and emerging exporters. (3) In the future crude oil competition, we should pay attention to the trend of the United States, which may lead to the restructuring of the global oil trade pattern. Finally, this paper considers the exporters and importers and puts forward policy suggestions for policymakers to deal with the future global crude oil trade competition.