文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：碳中和目标下京津冀地区碳排放影响因素研究--基于分位数回归和VAR模型的实证分析

英文题名：Research on Influencing Factors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Carbon Emissions Under Carbon Neutral Target Empirical Analysis Based on Quantile Regression and VAR Model

作者：张丽峰[1];刘思萌[2]

第一作者：张丽峰

机构：[1]北京联合大学旅游学院,北京100101;[2]北京市产业经济研究中心,北京100027

第一机构：北京联合大学旅游学院

年份：2021

卷号：37

期号：9

起止页码：1025-1031

中文期刊名：资源开发与市场

外文期刊名：Resource Development & Market

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；

基金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:17BJY064)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：碳排放;影响因素;分位数回归;VAR模型;京津冀

外文关键词：carbon emissions;influencing factors;quantile regression;VAR model;Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

摘要：科学测度碳排放影响因素对于京津冀地区碳中和目标实现具有重要现实意义。运用分位数回归和VAR模型中的脉冲响应和方差分解法对京津冀地区碳排放影响因素进行了研究。结果表明:(1)在碳排放量不同分位点下,经济发展水平和技术水平回归系数均为正,且对碳排放影响逐渐减弱,能源结构回归系数为负,其影响逐渐增强,人口规模回归系数为正,围绕着均值回归系数上下波动。(2)未来一段时期内,经济发展水平与人口规模对碳排放影响是正向,但影响程度逐渐减弱,技术水平和能源结构影响均呈现先升后降趋势,但技术水平影响是正向,能源结构影响是负向。(3)未来一段时期内,技术水平和能源结构是影响碳排放的主要因素。
Scientific measurement of the influencing factors of carbon emissions was great practical significance for the realization of the goal of carbon neutrality in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and even the whole country.Using quantile regression and impulse response and variance decomposition method in VAR model,this paper studied the influencing factors of carbon emission in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.The results showed that:①Under different quantiles of carbon emission,the regression coefficients of economic development level and technical level were positive,and the impact on carbon emission was gradually weakening,while the regression coefficient of energy structure was negative,and its impact was gradually increasing,the regression coefficient of population size was positive and fluctuates around the mean value.②In the future,the level of economic development and population size had a positive impact on carbon emissions,but the impact would gradually weaken.The impact of technology level and energy structure would first rise and then decline,but the impact of technology level was positive,and the impact of energy structure was negative.③In the future,technology level and energy structure would be the main factors affecting carbon emissions.