文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：面向城市建成区扩展模拟的CA-Markov模型改进

英文题名：Improvement of CA-Markov Model for Extended Modeling of Urban Built-up Area

作者：李静[1];陈云波[2];刘小茜[3,4];裴韬[3];施昆[1];李向新[1,5]

第一作者：李静

机构：[1]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院;[2]昆明市规划编制与信息中心;[3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室;[4]北京联合大学应用文理学院;[5]高原山区测绘技术应用工程研究中心

第一机构：昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南昆明650093

年份：2018

卷号：0

期号：3

起止页码：60-65

中文期刊名：测绘通报

外文期刊名：Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2017】；CSCD:【CSCD_E2017_2018】；

基金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(41590845);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41601096)

语种：中文

中文关键词：城市扩展模拟;元胞自动机.马尔可夫链(CA-Markov)模型;层次分析模型;逻辑回归模型:整合的层次分析和逻辑回归模型

外文关键词：urban expansion simulation ; CA-Markov model ; analytical hierarchy process ; logistic regression model; integrated analytic hierarchy process and logistic regression model

摘要：对城市建成区扩展的预测是防止城市蔓延的重要管理依据。目前,元胞自动机-马尔可夫链模型,已成为城市建成区扩展预测的重要方法。该模型对指标权重的赋值方法较为敏感,以往的单一指标赋值法,影响了城市建成区扩展预测的精度和可信度。为此,本研究提出整合传统权重赋值法的AHP和逻辑回归模型改进CA-Markov模型。研究选择云南省大理市为案例,对2020、2030年的城市建成区扩展进行模拟和预测,最后进行精度验证。研究结果表明:(1)Kappa指数可达到96.8%,预测结果有较好的一致性。(2)大理市的城市建成区扩展均表现为继续向外扩展,以东南、西北方向和两片建成区之间为主要扩展方向。研究提供了组合权重赋值法改进CA-Markov模型,这将为规划者在未来规划中提供强有力的支持。
The prediction of the expansion of urban built-up areas is an important management basis for preventing the spread of cities. At present,the CA-Markov model has become an important method for the expansion of urban built-up areas. The model is more sensitive to the method of index weight assigmnent.In the past,the single index assignment method ＂affected the accuracy and credibility of the extended prediction of urban buih-up areas.To this end,this paper proposes to improve the CA-Markov model by integrating AHP and logistic regression models based on the traditional weighted assignment method.The paper selects Dali city,Yunnan province as a case study to simulate and forecast the expansion of urban built-up areas in 2020 and 2030,and finally verifies the aceuracy.The resuhs show that ：（1）Kappa index can reach 96.8%, the prediction results have a good consisteney.（2）The expansion of urban built-up areas in Dali City continues to expand outward,with the southeast and northwest directions as the main expansion direction between the two built-up areas. Research provides a combination of weight assignment method to improve the CA-Markov model, which will provide planners with strong support in the future planning.