文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Integrated SWAT model and statistical downscaling for estimating streamflow response to climate change in the Lake Dianchi watershed, China

作者：Zhou, Jing[1,2];He, Dan[3];Xie, Yufeng[4];Liu, Yong[2];Yang, Yonghui[2];Sheng, Hu[2];Guo, Huaicheng[2];Zhao, Lei[5];Zou, Rui[6]

第一作者：Zhou, Jing

通讯作者：Liu, Y[1]

机构：[1]Chinese Acad Sci,Beijing, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;[2]Peking Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Key Lab Water & Sediment Sci MOE, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China;[3]Beijing Union Univ, Coll Arts & Sci, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China;[4]Minist Environm Protect, Nanjing Inst Environm Sci, Nanjing 210042, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;[5]Yunnan Key Lab Pollut Proc & Management Plateau L, Kunming 650034, Peoples R China;[6]Tetra Tech Inc, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA

第一机构：Chinese Acad Sci,Beijing, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

通讯机构：[1]corresponding author), Peking Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Key Lab Water & Sediment Sci MOE, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China.

年份：2015

卷号：29

期号：4

起止页码：1193-1210

外文期刊名：STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT

收录：;EI(收录号：20150900567205);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-84939989714);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000353516400010)】；

基金：This paper was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41401080, 41222002 and U0833603) and "China National Water Pollution Control Program" (2013ZX07102-006). The authors also greatly appreciate the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN) for providing the reanalysis products of the NCEP and HadCM3 outputs for the downscaling tool and would like to acknowledge the IPCC Data Distribution Centre for technical support.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Climate change; Streamflow; Statistical downscaling model; SWAT; Lake Dianchi watershed

摘要：Understanding the relationships between hydrological regime and climate change is important for water resources management. In this study, the streamflow response to climate change was investigated in the Lake Dianchi watershed, which is one of the most important eutrophic lakes in China. Daily time-series of temperature and precipitation in the future periods (2020, 2050 and 2080s) were projected from HadCM3 model. Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the previously calibrated and validated Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model were used to quantify the impacts of climate change on streamflow in this watershed. The results showed that SDSM can well capture the statistical relationships between the large scale climate variables and the observed weather at regional scale. The downscaled results showed that annual average maximum and minimum temperature would rise by 4.28 (3.25) and 4.71 A degrees C (3.33 A degrees C) in the 2080s under A2 (B2) scenario. Annual average precipitation would decrease within the range between 20.34 and 74.12 mm under both scenarios in the future. Based on SWAT model simulation, annual average streamflow would decrease in the future by the declination of -7.12 to -21.83 % and -6.34 to -17.09 % under A2 (B2) scenarios in the outlet of this watershed. The frequency of drought and extreme rainfall events would increase in the future, which is not beneficial to protect Lake Dianchi. This study could lead to a better understanding of the streamflow response under climate change and also raised concerns about the sustainability of future water resources in Lake Dianchi watershed.