文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：煤炭资源型城市多适应性情景动力学模型研究——以鄂尔多斯市为例

英文题名：A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos, China

作者：刘小茜[1,2];裴韬[2,3];周成虎[2];杜云艳[2];马廷[2];谢传节[2];许珺[2]

第一作者：刘小茜

通讯作者：Pei, T[1];Pei, T[2]

机构：[1]北京联合大学应用文理学院,北京100191;[2]资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;[3]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京210023

第一机构：北京联合大学应用文理学院

通讯机构：[1]corresponding author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;[2]corresponding author), Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China.

年份：2018

卷号：48

期号：2

起止页码：243-258

中文期刊名：中国科学：地球科学

外文期刊名：Scientia Sinica(Terrae)

收录：CSTPCD;;EI(收录号：20173704137627);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85028810417);WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000426574800006)，SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000426574800006)】；北大核心:【北大核心2017】；CSCD:【CSCD2017_2018】；

基金：This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41590845 & 41601096) and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 2015M581160).

语种：中文

中文关键词：系统动力学模型;Stella;资源型城市;多适应性情景

外文关键词：System dynamics model, Stella, Resource-based city, Multiple adaptive scenarios

摘要：作为在中国社会经济发展中承担重要角色,同时也是目前数量最多、经济比重最大的一类资源型城市,煤炭资源型城市由于煤炭的开发和利用正面临着多种经济、社会和生态问题,亟需进行发展方式转型.以中国的国情,区域转型往往是通过决策者所实施的一系列引导或调控政策来实现.而政策制定的前提是对区域问题的本质及产生机理的充分认识,其关键在于对多种政策效用及其影响的系统评估.目前,基于要素耦合和系统视角的系统动力学模型,已被广泛用于区域转型策略研究中,在揭示复杂问题本质方面具有显著优势,但其在评估和指导具体调控政策方面尚有待深化.为此,本研究在构建煤炭资源型城市系统动力学模型基础上,提出了多适应性情景系统动力学模型(Multiple Adaptive Scenarios system Dynamic model,MASD).MASD的优势在于构建了多个政策变量并根据政策变量的阈值生成适应性管理情景,通过改良政策情景设置方法弥补了以往系统动力学模型在政策效应评估方面的不足,从而为区域转型决策提供了更有效的研究工具.研究选择了内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市为案例区,运用MASD模型分析了吨煤工业耗水量、水循环利用效率、人均居民生活用水、城市建设用地扩张速率和人口承载力管理等调控政策的系统影响.研究发现,煤炭资源型城市社会经济发展存在一般性规律,即依次经历自然增长、加速增长、波动性稳定增长、衰退和再平衡等发展阶段;同时,不同调控政策在系统发展的不同阶段起主导作用.据此,研究提出了"先动态识别阶段,后划定主导政策"的资源型城市转型管理策略.根据研究区社会经济现状判断,鄂尔多斯市正处于加速增长到波动稳定的过渡阶段,最优转型策略是发展节水型工业,并依据承载力来调控城镇人口规模。
Abstract Cities based on coal resources have increasingly important social and economic roles in China. Their strategies for sustainable development, however, urgently need to be improved, which represents a huge challenge. Most observers believe that the continued progress of these cities relies on the optimization of scientific adaptive management in which social, economic, and ecological factors are incorporated. A systems perspective that combines policies, management priorities, and long-term policy impacts needs to be applied. To date, however, such an approach has not been adopted, which means it is difficult to implement adaptive management at the regional scale. In this study, we used various situations to develop a multiple adaptive scenario system dynamics model. We then simulated a range of policy scenarios, with Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as a case study. Simulation results showed that the current strategy is not sustainable and predicted that the system would exceed the environmental capacity, with risks of resource exhaustion and urban decline in 2025-2035. Five critical policy variables, including the urban population carrying capacity, rates of water consumption and water recycling, and expansion of urban land cover, were identified during sensitivity analysis. We developed and compared six socio-economic scenarios. The urban area, represented by the urban population density, seemed to transition through five different stages, namely natural growth, rapid growth, stable oscillation, fading, and rebalancing. Our scenarios suggested that different policies had different roles through each stage. The water use efficiency management policy had a comprehensive far-reaching influence on the system behavior; land urbanization management functions dominated at the start, and population capacity management was a major control in the mid-term. Our results showed that the water recycling policy and the urban population carrying capacity were extremely important, and both should be reinforced and evaluated by the local governments.