文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：北京城镇化、工业化对能源强度影响的实证分析

英文题名：Empirical Analysis of Impact of Urbanization,Industrialization on Energy Intensity of Beijing

作者：张丽峰[1];刘思萌[2]

第一作者：张丽峰

机构：[1]北京联合大学旅游学院;[2]东北师范大学经济学院

第一机构：北京联合大学旅游学院

年份：2017

卷号：33

期号：9

起止页码：1046-1050

中文期刊名：资源开发与市场

外文期刊名：Resource Development & Market

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;CSSCI:【CSSCI_E2017_2018】；

基金：国家自然科学基金项目"转移排放;碳关税对中美经济的影响及策略研究--基于CGE模型的实证分析"(编号:71273275)

语种：中文

中文关键词：城镇化;工业化;能源强度;VAR模型

外文关键词：urbanization ; industrialization; energy intensity ; vector auto - regression model

摘要：利用VAR模型,通过协整检验、脉冲响应分析,分析了北京城镇化、工业化和经济发展水平对能源强度的长期和动态影响。结果表明:1980—2015年北京市能源强度与城镇化、工业化和经济发展水平间存在长期均衡关系,城镇化水平对能源强度的影响呈正相关,而工业化和经济发展水平与能源强度呈负相关,工业化对能源强度的影响大于经济发展水平。在今后一段时期内,北京市城镇化发展对能源强度影响最大,其次是工业化和经济发展水平。前四期北京市城镇化发展抑制了能源强度下降,第五期之后促进了能源强度下降,但影响力度逐渐减弱;工业化和经济发展水平促进了能源强度下降,影响力度较平稳。降低能源强度不能单纯依靠第三产业比重的上升和经济发展规模的扩大,应提升城市化、工业化内涵和质量,转变经济发展方式,提高经济发展质量。
Using the VAR model, through the co - integration test and impulse response analysis, this paper analyzed the long - term and dynam- ic effects of urbanization,industrialization and economic development level on energy intensity, the main conclusions were： From 1980 to 2015, there existed a long- term equilibrium relationship among energy intensity, urbanization, industrialization and economic development level. There existed a positive correlation between energy intensity and urbanization which had the largest influence on the energy intensity, the industrialization, level of eco- nomic development and energy intensity were negatively correlated, the influence of industrialization on energy intensity was greater than the influence of the level of economic development. During a period of time in future, the development of urbanization was the largest impact on energy intensity, the second was the industrialization and then was the level of economic development. Before period four, development of urbanization suppressed a decline in energy intensity, and promoted the decline in energy intensity after period five, but the intensity of the impact was waning, industrialization and level of economic development were promoted the decline of energy intensity, but the intensity of the impact made stable. Reducing energy intensity, not only depended on the expansion of economy scale and the rise of proportion of tertiary industry, should enhance the content and quality of industrial- ization and urbanization, change the pattern of economic development, improve the quality of economic development.