文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：A comparative exploration of the chaotic characteristics of Chinese and international copper futures prices

作者：Zheng, Shuxian[1];Tan, Zhanglu[1];Xing, Wanli[2];Zhou, Xuanru[3];Zhao, Pei[4];Yin, Xiuqi[2];Hu, Han[1]

第一作者：Zheng, Shuxian

通讯作者：Tan, ZL[1];Xing, WL[2]

机构：[1]China Univ Min & Technol, Sch Management, 11 Xueyuan Rd, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China;[2]China Geol Survey, Dev Res Ctr, Beijing 100037, Peoples R China;[3]China Univ Geosci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China;[4]Beijing Union Univ, Teachers Coll, 5 Waiguan Obl St, Beijing 100011, Peoples R China

第一机构：China Univ Min & Technol, Sch Management, 11 Xueyuan Rd, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

通讯机构：[1]corresponding author), China Univ Min & Technol, Sch Management, 11 Xueyuan Rd, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China;[2]corresponding author), Chinese Acad Geol Sci, Inst Mineral Resources, 26 Baiwanzhuang St, Beijing 100037, Peoples R China.

年份：2022

卷号：78

外文期刊名：RESOURCES POLICY

收录：;EI(收录号：20222312204124);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85131373714);WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000930882700010)】；

基金：This research is supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71991481), China Geological Survey project (Grant No. DD20211409) and Basic Science Centre Project for National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 72088101, the Theory and Application of Resource and Environment Management in the Digital Economy Era).

语种：英文

外文关键词：Copper futures prices; Chaotic structural differences; Market comparison; Analysis of influencing factors

摘要：This study used a C-C method to reconstruct the phase space of copper prices from January 2002 to December 2021, using Chinese and international copper futures price time series as a sample. It demonstrates the differences in the chaotic characteristics of two copper futures prices through recurrence plots and correlation dimensions. Recurrence complex networks have been employed to quantify the spatial structural similarity between the variables and copper prices, and the main factors influencing the structural changes in copper prices have been analysed by a systematic bifurcation mechanism. The results show that the efficiency of the copper futures market has improved gradually. The level of perfection and efficiency of the Chinese copper futures market is lower than that of the international copper futures market, and the predictability of Chinese copper futures prices is even weaker, which means that the investment in Chinese copper futures is riskier than that in the international copper futures market. Compared to other metal futures, such as aluminium and nickel, copper futures are likely to be a lower risk investment. The US dollar index, the federal funds rate and the price of gold are the main factors influencing changes in the spatial structure of copper prices in China, while political risk, crude oil and gold prices are key to shaping the chaotic character of international copper prices. A tipping point in the chaotic state of copper prices could correspond to the onset of a global financial crisis. This study can help policymakers to understand the market laws underlying prices and thus create robust and well-traded markets by controlling the chaotic characteristic structure of copper prices. In addition, the identification of chaotic state thresholds in Chinese and international copper prices can predict the occurrence of unexpected events such as financial crises, which is important to counteract financial market risks.