文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：影响女性生育二孩意愿的因素预测及女性权益保护——基于马尔科夫链模型

英文题名：A Study on the Factors Affecting Women's Fertility Desire to Have Two Children and the Protection of Women's Rights and Interests—— Based on the Markov Chain Model

作者：程雅馨[1];何勤[1]

第一作者：程雅馨

机构：[1]北京联合大学管理学院

第一机构：北京联合大学管理学院

年份：2018

卷号：32

期号：1

起止页码：71-79

中文期刊名：中国劳动关系学院学报

外文期刊名：Journal of China University of Labor Relations

收录：国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库

基金：北京社科基金项目"京津冀化解产能过剩中企业劳资冲突风险的治理研究"(课题编号:15JGB058);北京市教育委员会社科计划面上项目"京津冀协同发展背景下统一开放的人力资源市场体系构建研究"(课题编号:SM201511417010);北京联合大学人才强校优选计划资助~~

语种：中文

中文关键词：二孩生育意愿;影响因素;女性权益保护;马尔科夫链

外文关键词：two - child fertility willingness; women＇s rights protection; Markov chain

摘要：在全面放开二孩的政策背景下,女性的生育意愿受到越来越多的关注,影响女性生育二孩意愿的因素和女性权益的保护问题,已经成为社会关注的热点。本文通过发放问卷收集数据,应用马尔科夫模型分析预测影响生育意愿的因素和选择影响生育意愿因素之间的转移概率。通过概率推测出女性身体健康为影响生育意愿的最重要因素,其次为经济因素,与以往研究相比,经济因素不再是面对生育问题时考虑的最重要因素,新时代的生育观点已经发生改变,身体健康状况和女性的权益保护备受关注。根据模型的分析结果提出:女性权益适度保护;加强顶层设计,完善二胎配套措施;大力推动诚信服务业的发展,营造环境友好型工作氛围等相关政策建议。
In the context of full liberalization of the the universal two-child policy, women＇s fertility desire are paid more and more attention, and what factors affect the fertility and the protection of women＇s rights and interests become a hot topic of social concern. In this paper, the Markov model is used to predict the infuence of fertility willingness and selection of the transition probability between infuencing factors of fertility. The economic factors are no longer the primary factors in the face of fertility problems, while physical health and the protection of women＇s rights and interests are of great concern. According to the results of the model analysis, the paper proposes： the appropriate protection of women＇s rights; strengthening the top foor design and perfecting the supporting measures of two children; vigorously promoting the development of honest service industry and creating friendly working atmosphere.