文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于随机森林模型的中国居民出境旅游影响因素重要性研究

英文题名：Research on Importance of Influencing Factors of Resident Outbound Tourism in China Based on Random Forest Model

作者：张丽峰[1]

第一作者：张丽峰

机构：[1]北京联合大学旅游学院

第一机构：北京联合大学旅游学院

年份：2017

卷号：33

期号：6

起止页码：711-716

中文期刊名：资源开发与市场

外文期刊名：Resource Development & Market

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;CSSCI:【CSSCI_E2017_2018】；

基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:71373023);北京市教育委员会社科计划项目(编号:SM201611417001);北京联合大学旅游信息化协同创新中心资助

语种：中文

中文关键词：出境旅游;影响因素;随机森林模型

外文关键词：outbound tourism ; influencing factors ; random forest model

摘要：通过建立1999—2014年中国居民出境旅游影响因素的随机森林模型,选取并定量分析了经济因素、市场因素和社会因素对中国居民出境旅游的影响程度与差异。研究结果表明:经济因素的影响最强,市场因素次之,社会因素影响最弱;人民币大幅度升值、居民收入持续增长、经济发展水平稳步提升、城市化快速推进是近年来居民出境旅游出现高速发展的最重要影响因素;国内旅游市场和入境旅游市场对出境旅游有较明显的影响;居民对国内商品质量或服务的投诉不是居民出境旅游的主要原因;出境旅游仍然是高收入群体的消费行为,出境旅游的发展还没有达到大众普及的阶段。
Through the establishment of the random forest model of China＇s residents outbound tourism influencing factors of 1999 - 2014, this paper chose and quantitatively analyzed the influence degree and difference of the economic factors, market factors and social factors to Chinese resi- dents of outbound tourism. The results showed that：The economic factor had the strongest effect, the market factor was the second, social factor was the weakest. The sharp appreciation of the RMB Yuan, resident income sustained growth, the steady improvement of level of economic development and ur- banization rapid development were the most important influencing factors of resident outbound tourism rapid development. The domestic tourism and in- bound tourism had obvious effect on the outbound tourism, residents complaint about the quality of domestic goods or services was not important reason of resident outbound tourism. The outbound tourism was still the consumer behavior of the high income groups, outbound tourism development had not vet reached the stage of popularization.