文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Prediction of Television Audience Rating Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps with Forward Stepwise Regression

作者：Ma, Nan[1];Wang, Patrick[2];He, Qin[3];Li, Wenjia[4];Zheng, Ying[1];Huan, Zhang[5]

第一作者：马楠

通讯作者：Ma, N[1]

机构：[1]Beijing Union Univ, Coll Robot, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;[2]Northeastern Univ, Boston, MA 02115 USA;[3]Beijing Union Univ, Management Coll, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;[4]CiWen Corp, Beijing 10002, Peoples R China;[5]Macau Univ Sci & Technol, Fac Informat Technol, Macau 999078, Peoples R China

第一机构：北京联合大学机器人学院

通讯机构：[1]corresponding author), Beijing Union Univ, Coll Robot, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China.|[1141739]北京联合大学机器人学院;[11417]北京联合大学;

年份：2017

卷号：31

期号：7

外文期刊名：INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PATTERN RECOGNITION AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

收录：;EI(收录号：20171603571535);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85017390056);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000399225200001)】；

基金：We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions. This research is partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 61300078, 61672178 and The Importation and Development of High-Caliber Talents Project of Beijing Municipal Institutions.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Fuzzy cognitive maps; forward stepwise regression; television audience rating; data mining

摘要：The television audience rating is an important indicator of the quality of television programs and important reference for decision-television operator. As many factors that affect the ratings and the trends are complex, the article proposes a television rating mining predictive model based on fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) with forward stepwise regression. The FCMs use the causal relationship among various concept nodes to simulate the fuzzy reasoning, and enhance the dynamic behavior of the simulation system with its feedback mechanism, which is suitable for system to predict the trend of television audience rating. A FCM-based model for predicting television audience rating is proposed in this paper. The forward stepwise regression algorithm is used to obtain concept nodes of coarse weight matrix for FCMs, and then a training weight algorithm is used to refine the coarse weight matrix model. The FCM model is applied to mine the television audience rating, realizing to predict the television playback volume. The experimental result shows that the modeling method is effective.