文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Climate Change Scenarios and Implications for Marine System Sustainability

作者：Wang, Fengting[1];Tian, Yuan[2];Xiong, Lichun[3]

第一作者：Wang, Fengting

通讯作者：Tian, Y[1]

机构：[1]China Agr Univ, Natl Agr & Rural Dev Res Inst, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China;[2]Beijing Union Univ, Business Coll, Beijing 100025, Peoples R China;[3]Zhejiang Agr & Forestry Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Hangzhou 311300, Zhejiang, Peoples R China

第一机构：China Agr Univ, Natl Agr & Rural Dev Res Inst, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

通讯机构：[1]corresponding author), Beijing Union Univ, Business Coll, Beijing 100025, Peoples R China.|[1141721]北京联合大学商务学院;[11417]北京联合大学;

年份：2019

卷号：94

期号：sp1

起止页码：55-59

外文期刊名：JOURNAL OF COASTAL RESEARCH

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85072268500);WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000485711600011)，SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000485711600011)】；

基金：*Corresponding author: yuan.tian@buu.edu.cn ?Coastal Education and Research Foundation, Inc. 2019

语种：英文

外文关键词：Marine system; climate change scenario; integrated assessment model; greenhouse gases

摘要：Strengthening climate change scenario research is a prerequisite for reducing the impact of climate change on the marine system. This paper systematically reviews the evolution of climate change scenarios from three aspects: its meaning, main characteristics and application. The results show that: (1) Different climate scenarios have played an important role in previous IPCC assessment reports. Special report on emission scenario (SRES) reduce the difference of climate simulation results among different research teams. Representative concentration path (RCP) scenarios strengthen the reference role of emission scenarios for researchers and decision makers in research and response to climate change. Shared socioeconomic path (SSP) scenarios integrate climate policy and socio-economic scenarios to better meet climate change. Research group needs of response, adaptation and vulnerability; (2) Scenario generation technology has gone through three stages of historical data space-time analogy, serial development and parallel development, the improvement of which shortens the development cycle and enhances the consistency of results; (3) The difference of different scenarios is reflected in the characteristics and applications of scenarios, and links the mapping between SRS, RCP and SSP scenarios.