文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：城市更新中老旧小区居民的改造与迁居意愿分析——以重庆市中心城区为例

英文题名：Renovation and relocation intentions among residents of old urban residential communities in the context of urban renewal:Taking the central urban area of Chongqing as an example

作者：邱璘琳[1];谌丽[1];张文忠[2,3]

第一作者：邱璘琳

机构：[1]北京联合大学应用文理学院,北京100101;[2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101;[3]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京101408

第一机构：北京联合大学应用文理学院

年份：2025

卷号：44

期号：11

起止页码：2263-2279

中文期刊名：地理科学进展

外文期刊名：Progress in Geography

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071215,42471203,42171206)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：老旧小区改造;改造意愿;迁居意愿:可解释机器学习;非线性影响;重庆

外文关键词：old urban residential communities;intention to renovation;intention to relocate;explainable machine learning;nonlinear effects;Chongqing

摘要：在城市更新背景下,理解老旧小区居民的住房决策机制对提升老旧小区改造的精准性和有效性具有重要价值。论文基于2023年住房和城乡建设部城市体检社会调查中重庆市中心九城区的数据样本,构建改造意愿—迁居意愿双模型分析框架,运用随机森林算法结合可解释模型,系统探究两类决策行为的影响因素及其关联效应。研究发现:①老旧小区居民展现显著的留守改善行为偏好;区位、房屋属性是影响住房决策的首要因素,改造与迁居意愿在城市空间中形成截然不同的分布格局,且在10 km处出现关键空间阈值。②住房特征方面,楼层、产权、房屋质量、居住时长及社区环境对改造与迁居意愿表现出差异化且复杂的影响模式。③个体特征方面,18~24岁群体改造意愿最强,而老年人迁居倾向最保守;高收入、高学历居民在两类决策上均表现出更高的积极性,显示出更强的决策灵活性。此外,改造与迁居意愿之间呈现明显的替代效应。研究为城市更新政策的精准化与差异化提供了理论支撑,并有助于实现人民“共建共治共享”的城市更新目标。
In the context of urban renewal,it is of great value to understand the housing decision-making mechanism of residents in old urban communities to improve the suitability and effectiveness of old community regeneration.Based on the sampling data of Jiucheng District in the center of Chongqing Municipality in the 2023 Urban Physical Examination Social Survey of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development,this study constructed a dual-model analysis framework of renovation intention and relocation intention,and used the random forest algorithm combined with explainable model to systematically explore the influencing factors and correlation effects of the two types of decision-making behaviors.The results indicate that residents in old urban communities showed a significant preference for in-situ improvement.Location is the primary factor that influenced housing decision making,renovation and relocation intentions formed completely different distribution patterns in urban space,and a key spatial threshold appeared at 10 km distance.In terms of housing characteristics,there was a positive correlation but with a decreasing margin between floors and relocation intentions,and a"U"-shaped relationship for relocation.The clarity of property rights strengthened the tendency to renovate and inhibited the relocation behavior;Housing quality was negatively correlated with both types of intentions.The length of residence had the opposite effect on the two.The social environment had a significant negative effect on the intention to renovate and the intention to relocate.In terms of individual characteristics,the middle-aged group rather than the elderly showed the strongest intention to renovate,and the elderly also had the most conservative tendency to relocate.Residents with higher income levels and education levels showed more positive attitudes in both renovation and relocation decisions,reflecting their decision-making flexibility.In addition,there was a significant substitution effect between renovation and relocation intentions.This study provides a theoretical support for targeted and differentiated urban renewal policies,and is helpful for realizing the urban renewal goal of"co-construction,co-governance,and sharing"of the people.