文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：“大罢免”后中国台湾地区政党生态体系重构与趋势分析

英文题名：On the Reconstruction and Trends of the Political Party Ecosystem in Taiwan Region of China After the“Recall Vote Endeavors”

作者：陈星[1]

第一作者：陈星

机构：[1]北京联合大学台湾研究院

第一机构：北京联合大学台湾研究院|北京联合大学台湾研究所

年份：2025

期号：4

起止页码：67-77

中文期刊名：台海研究

外文期刊名：Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

语种：中文

中文关键词：中国台湾地区民意;政党生态;中美竞争;重构与拐点

外文关键词：Public Opinion in Taiwan Region of China;Party Ecology;Sino-US Competition;Reconstruction and Turning Point

摘要：民进党自蔡英文第二任期以来即进入了趋势性衰退的运行轨道。赖清德上台后,“权力茧房”与自恋型政治人格效应叠加,民进党下滑的速度加快。同时,国民党组织结构弱化的速度也在加快,国民党中央的统合能力进一步减弱。民进党与国民党的发展退化拓展了民众党的生存空间,在经受一系列打压之后仍能恢复元气。同时,中国台湾地区民意的变化潜滋暗涨,已经通过诸种迹象表露出来。中国台湾地区社会近几年来的民意变化具有系统性与结构性特征,与一般意义上易变的“民意”具有根本性差别。在自下而上的民意变化和自上而下的台海格局变化共同作用下,中国台湾地区政党政治生态已经越过了稳定两党制的拐点,进入政党体系重构的新阶段。
Since Tsai Ing-wen's second term,the Democratic Progressive Party(DPP)has been on a downward trajectory.When Lai Ching-te took office,the"power cocoon"and narcissistic political personality have compounded,accelerating the DPP's decline.At the same time,the pace of the Kuomintang's organizational structure weakening has also accelerated,and its central cohesion has further weakened.The degeneration of both the DPP and the Kuomintang has provided the People's Party with an opportunity to expand its political space,facilitating its recovery despite a series of suppressive measures.Meanwhile,various signs implicated secret and gradual changes of public opinion in Taiwan Region of China.The changes have systematic and structural characteristics,which are fundamentally different from the general sense of volatile"public opinion".Owing to the combined influence of bottom-up changes in public opinion and top-down changes in the cross-strait situation,the political party ecosystem in the Taiwan region of China has crossed the turning point of a stable two-party system and entered a new stage of party system reconstruction.