文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：城市群高质量发展背景下人口聚散规律和驱动因素研究

英文题名：Population Agglomeration and Dispersion and Driving Factors under the Background of High-Quality Development of Urban Agglomeration

作者：刘洁[1];王亚[2];苏杨[3]

第一作者：刘洁

机构：[1]北京联合大学商务学院,北京100025;[2]华南师范大学旅游管理学院,广东广州510631;[3]国务院发展研究中心管理世界杂志社,北京100026

第一机构：北京联合大学商务学院

年份：2023

卷号：25

期号：6

起止页码：103-119

中文期刊名：河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版)

外文期刊名：Journal of Hohai University:Philosophy and Social Sciences

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2023_2024】；

基金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA131);北京市属高等学校高水平教学创新团队建设支持计划项目(BPHR20220228);北京联合大学重点科研项目(SKZD202306)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：城市群;高质量发展;人口聚散;驱动要素;规模借用;功能借用

外文关键词：urban agglomeration;high-quality development;population agglomeration and dispersion;driving factors;borrowed size;borrowed function

摘要：人口与经济协调发展是城市群发展方式更易实现的目标。影响城市群人口聚散的驱动因素有些方面与城市类似:可分为由资源环境决定的内在驱动因素和政策导向、公共服务水平等主导的外在驱动因素。在市场与政府的共同作用下,内在与外在要素分别通过内链与外链形成两条相互影响的驱动路径共同影响人口聚散;有些则不同:城市群内各城市间可通过“规模借用”与“功能借用”实现要素的交换与替代,更易于克服内在和外在驱动因素壁垒,整体实现资本、人力资源等要素的更高配置效率。在对城市群人口聚散规律及驱动因素进行辨析的基础上,利用生产函数构建数理模型,引入资源要素与政策要素,并以首都都市圈中“一核两翼”结构为例进行了仿真分析,探究各驱动要素对人口聚散的作用强度与实现路径。实现人口疏解与承接的关键是提高城市间要素的可替代性与驱动弹性,城市群间可通过合作机制(借用规模)实现要素的交换与替代。在此基础上,提出促进城市群人口数量和分布合理化的思路:正确认识城市群人口承载力与城市功能定位的内涵;以高质量发展战略为契机,强化市场作用,以产业合理布局带动城市间人口合理分布;改革管理体制,降低省际边界障碍和户籍障碍,推进城市群内部的公共服务与基础设施水平均等化,促进形成与城市群和群中各城市功能定位相匹配的人口聚散形式。
The coordinated development of population and economy is a goal that is easier to achieve in the development mode of urban agglomerations.The driving factors that affect population agglomeration and dispersion in urban agglomerations are similar to cities in some aspects:they can be divided into internal driving factors determined by resource environment and external driving factors dominated by policy guidance and public service level.Under the joint action of the market and the government,internal and external factors form two mutually influencing driving paths through the inner chain and the outer chain respectively,which jointly affect the population gathering and dispersion of urban agglomerations.Some factorsare different from that of cities:cities within urban agglomerationscan exchange and replace elements through“borrowed size”and“borrowed function”,making it easier to overcome internal and external driving barriers and achieve higher overall efficiency in the allocation of capital,human resourcesand other elements.Based on the analysis of the laws and driving factors of population convergence and dispersion in urban agglomerations,a mathematical model is constructed using the Production function,introducing resource and policy elements,and a simulation analysis is carried out with the“one core and two wings”structure in the capital metropolitan area as an example to explore the strength and realization path of each driving factor on population convergence and dispersion.The key to achieving population dispersion and succession is to improve the substitutability and driving elasticity of elements between cities.The exchange and substitution of elements between urban agglomerations can be achieved through cooperation mechanisms(borrowed size).On this basis,we propose that the rationalization of population quantity and distribution in urban agglomerations should be promoted by correctly understanding the connotation of population carrying capacity and urban functional positioning in urban agglomerations;taking the high-quality development strategy as an opportunity,strengthening the role of the market,and driving the rational distribution of population between cities through the rational layout of industries;reforming the management system,reducing the barriers of provincial boundaries and registered residence to promote the equalization of public services and infrastructure within the urban agglomeration,and fostering the formation of population gathering and dispersion that matches the functional positioning of the urban agglomeration and the cities in the agglomeration.