文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：我国农村居民旅游消费对消费的动态影响研究

英文题名：Study on Rural Residents Tourism Consumption Dynamic Effects on Consumption in China

作者：张丽峰[1];丁于思[1]

第一作者：张丽峰

机构：[1]北京联合大学旅游学院

第一机构：北京联合大学旅游学院

年份：2015

卷号：31

期号：6

起止页码：753-755

中文期刊名：资源开发与市场

外文期刊名：Resource Development & Market

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;CSSCI:【CSSCI_E2014_2016】；

基金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71373023);北京市旅游信息化基地资助项目;北京高等学校青年英才计划项目(编号:YETP1750)

语种：中文

中文关键词：旅游消费;消费;协整;脉冲相应;方差分解

外文关键词：tourism consumption ; consumption ; contribution rate ; cointegration ; impulse response ; variance decomposition

摘要：目前我国农村居民旅游消费水平与6.3亿数量的农村人口相比还处于较低的水平,消费潜力没有得到充分释放,未来促消费、扩内需的发展空间还很大。通过建立VAR模型,协整检验、脉冲相应分析和方差分解,对我国农村居民旅游消费对消费的长期和动态影响进行了分析,得出以下主要结论:农村居民旅游消费和消费间存在着长期均衡关系,旅游消费对消费具有很大的促进作用;在未来的一段时期内,农村居民旅游消费对消费虽然有正面影响,但上升趋势不明显,对消费未来的贡献率呈现先升后降的趋势。
At present, the rural residents tourism consumption was still at a relatively low level compared with 6.3 ×l08 rural population, con- sumption potential was not released, there had a great development space to promote consumption and expand domestic demand in the future. Through the establishment of VAR model, cointegration test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper analyzed tourism consumption of Chinese rural residents the long - term and dynamic impact on consumption. The authors drew the following conclusions：There was a long - run equi- librium relationship between the rural residents tourism consumption and consumption, tourism consumption had a great role in the promotion of con- sumption. In the future, rural residents tourism consumption to consumption, although had positive effect, but the trend was not obvious. The rural resi- dents tourism consumption contribution rate to future consumption would decrease.